Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4591
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4591 · MCO → IND
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.