Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4617 · STL → HOU
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.