Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4635 · DEN → TUL
departs 5:20 PM MT · arrives 7:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.