Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4691 · BWI → ISP
departs 10:40 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ISP that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
ISP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.