Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 472 · PIT → TPA
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.