WN 4731 · MDW → SDF

departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4731 · MDW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?