WN 4741 · BNA → ELP

took off 12:52 PM CT · landed 2:21 PM MT (scheduled 12:25 PM CT → 2:26 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ BNA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4741 · BNA → ELP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELP?