Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4782 · AUS → TUL
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.