Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4784
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4784 · BNA → SEA
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.