Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4797 · HOU → JAX
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.