Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4811 · SJC → SAN
departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 1:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
12pm departures from SJC are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.