Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4829 · MCO → BHM
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.