WN 4844 · LGA → DAL

took off 9:22 PM ET · expected to land 11:19 PM CT (scheduled 8:01 PM ET → 10:56 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

90% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

LIVE

On time or early
10%
15–30 min late
49%
30 min–1 hour late
41%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4844 · LGA → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?