Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 484 LANDED 5:17 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

WN 484 · SJC → SAN

took off 4:16 PM PT · landed 5:17 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 484 · SJC → SAN

Odds over time