Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4852 · DAL → LGA
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.