Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4863 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:16 AM PT, ETA 12:33 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

WN 4863 · RNO → PHX

took off 11:16 AM PT · expected to land 12:33 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from RNO are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4863 · RNO → PHX

Odds over time