WN 4873 · ABQ → MCO

departs 2:25 PM MT · arrives 7:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4873 · ABQ → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?