WN 4875 · ATL → BWI

departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 8:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ATL that day

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4875 · ATL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?