Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4885 · BWI → SDF
departs 2:40 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.