Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4891 · IND → SAN
departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 12:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.