Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4910
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4910 · SEA → SAN
departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 5:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.