WN 4916 · RSW → MCO

departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 8:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from RSW are usually not late

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4916 · RSW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?