Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4929
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4929 · PIT → TPA
departs 5:55 AM ET · arrives 8:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 2%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from PIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.