Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 492 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Monday, October 5

WN 492 · TPA → MKE

departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 101h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Monday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±11 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Mon, Oct 5. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for TPA and MKE appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 492 · TPA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?