Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4953 · OAK → SNA
departs 8:30 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from OAK are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.