Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 495 · HNL → KOA
departs 8:35 PM HT · arrives 9:30 PM HT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
KOA is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
KOA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.