WN 4973 · STL → JAX

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ 7pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4973 · STL → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?