Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4978 · OAK → LAX
departs 1:20 PM PT · arrives 2:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from OAK are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.