WN 5035 · MCO → MSY

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 7:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.29 in

MSY (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5035 · MCO → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?