Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 534 · BNA → HOU
departs 7:25 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.