WN 554 · BNA → ECP

departs 7:25 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ 7pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 554 · BNA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?