Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 555
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 555 · SMF → SEA
departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.