Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 590
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 590 · OAK → SBA
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.