Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 823 · BWI → PVD
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.666667 mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.