WN 864 · LAS → PHX

departs 12:26 PM PT · arrives 1:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 864 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?