WN 874 · BUR → LAS

took off 8:52 PM PT · expected to land 9:31 PM PT (scheduled 7:55 PM PT → 9:07 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

94% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
6%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
50%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 874 · BUR → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?