WN 900 · PHX → SAT

departs 9:15 PM MT · arrives 1:33 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 900 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?