Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7843 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

Y4 7843 · MDW → AGU

departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 8:33 PM CST

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AGU

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AGU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7843 · MDW → AGU

Odds over time