Y4 7909 · DFW → MLM

took off 8:28 PM CT · expected to land 9:37 PM CST (scheduled 6:50 PM CT → 8:29 PM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MLM?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
94%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MLM

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MLM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7909 · DFW → MLM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MLM?