Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 3992 LANDED 6:31 PM CT, ~27 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YV 3992 · ATL → IAH

took off 5:43 PM ET · landed 6:31 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3992 · ATL → IAH

Odds over time