Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4002 LANDED 3:18 PM CT, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YV 4002 · ELP → IAH

took off 12:48 PM MT · landed 3:18 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4002 · ELP → IAH

Odds over time