YV 4005 · IAH → TYS

departs 6:34 PM CT · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TYS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4005 · IAH → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?