YV 4010 · IAH → ELP

departs 9:42 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4010 · IAH → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?