YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

departs 7:22 PM CT · arrives 8:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4053 · SAT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?