Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4057 LANDED 5:00 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YV 4057 · IAH → RIC

took off 1:43 PM CT · landed 5:00 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IAH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4057 · IAH → RIC

Odds over time