Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4070 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:53 PM ET, ETA 3:58 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YV 4070 · IAD → TYS

took off 2:53 PM ET · expected to land 3:58 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↑ 1pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4070 · IAD → TYS

Odds over time