Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6133 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:31 PM ET, ETA 12:43 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YV 6133 · IAD → IND

took off 11:31 PM ET · expected to land 12:43 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6133 · IAD → IND

Odds over time