Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3410 · EWR → BTV
departs 8:07 AM ET · arrives 9:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BTV at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.03 in
BTV (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.