Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3423 · EWR → BGR
departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 11:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BGR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BGR?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at BGR that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BGR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
BGR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.