Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3447
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3447 · HHH → EWR
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.89 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.